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[MLB] 被大聯盟恨透的「大數據」,小熊同樣陣容從95勝掉到79勝是被討厭?

2019-03-27
FILE – In this Feb. 24, 2018, file photo, Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon visits the mound during the second inning of a spring training baseball game against the Texas Rangers, in Mesa, Ariz. In the aftermath of Chicagos collapse last season, Cubs manager Joe Maddon went looking for a deeper understanding of the players who dominate the major leagues these days. Maddons search took him to Managing Millennials for Dummies, and the book reinforced what he already felt about the people he worked with every day.(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)

文/維克特

很多人都覺得棒球是不可預測的,然而大聯盟一年一度的PECOTA模型預測結果又出爐了,2018年賽季取得95勝的小熊隊被預測新賽季僅為79勝,國聯中區分區墊底,引起球迷一片譁然,媒體也展開了激烈的討論,小熊隊真的要往下走?

很多棒球業內人士都對PECOTA不是很瞭解,2016年賽季初,記者問當時響尾蛇隊總教練,對PECOTA預測響尾蛇隊78勝怎麼看的時候,主帥Dave Stewart回答說:「他們覺得我們只能有78勝?開玩笑!」當他回答問題的時候,他以為PECOTA是一個人,他用激烈的主觀意見反駁了他認為可笑的觀點。